If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?
PoliticsOne-OffWeatherUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 24, 9:37 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Global CO2 Emissions in 2025
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 41,000 million metric tons in 2026?
ForecastExParis Accord goal of reducing global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 43%: achieved by the end of 2030?
FutuurWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?
- I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset.
- In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons.
- Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.
- If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- If the total number for 2025 is 4.8 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? is scheduled to resolve on November 2, 2026.
- How is If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?