If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?
PoliticsOne-OffWeatherUS PoliticsElection3d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.3%
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28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 24, 9:37 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2025?
- I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset.
- In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons.
- Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.
- If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- If the total number for 2025 is 4.8 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.
