Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
42.2 billion tonnes 38.9%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 40 minutes ago
Dec 13, 24, 9:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.8 billion tons in 2025?
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 41,000 million metric tons in 2026?
ForecastExParis Accord goal of reducing global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 43%: achieved by the end of 2030?
FutuurWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market predicts the total global CO2 emissions for 2025, including emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land-use changes.
- It will resolve based on the data presented in this graph from Our World in Data, rounded to one decimal place.
- The figures presented by Our World in Data are derived from the Global Carbon Budget dataset.
- Final data for 2025 are expected to be published in November 2026.
- If necessary, I will add new answers to ensure there are always at least 10 answers above and below the one with the highest odds.
- For comparison, the same market for the year after and the year before:
Open markets
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Global CO2 Emissions in 2025?
- Manifold Markets prices 42.2 billion tonnes at 39% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Global CO2 Emissions in 2025 resolve?
- Global CO2 Emissions in 2025 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Global CO2 Emissions in 2025 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market predicts the total global CO2 emissions for 2025, including emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land-use changes.