Current community forecast
Yes 68.1%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 24, 3:54 PM UTCFeb 24, 29, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill global CO2 emissions decrease in 2027?
Manifold MarketsGlobal CO2 Emissions in 2025
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 36,000 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 36,500 million metric tons in 2028?
ForecastExArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurRules
Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), or by a mere 0.1% according to this Nature article.
- Here is the graph for the past few years form IEA.
- China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak.
- Q1 2024 numbers may even point at a decrease.
- Will 2028 emissions be lower than 2027?
- This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.
Open markets
China
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028? resolve?
- Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on February 24, 2029.
- How is Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), or by a mere 0.1% according to this Nature article.