If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionUS PoliticsCrime & Justice6dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.7%
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30
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 10, 24, 5:05 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros:
- https://infogram.com/ct_report-homicide-1hmr6g7pmkyqo6n
- https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/
- Resolved based on the CCJ’s 2026 report, published after the 2026 midterm elections.
- Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.
- Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.
