Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 62.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 24, 25, 8:54 PM UTCJan 21, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background President Trump has the pardoned or commuted the sentences of individuals involved in the January 6th Capitol riot, including individuals convicted for violent acts that occurred during those events.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- Any pardoned/commuted individual is found legally responsible (through conviction or guilty plea) for a homicide that occurs between their pardon/commutation and January 20, 2027
- The homicide can be of any type (first degree, second degree, manslaughter, etc.)
- The market will resolve NO if:
- No pardoned/commuted January 6th participant is found legally responsible for a homicide during the specified timeframe
