If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 24, 3:49 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- Otherwise resolves No at the end of 2026.
- Authorities include police, national guard, or military, or any uniformed group that present themselves as responsible for maintaining law and order (or controlling protests/riots, etc), and are not contradicted in this by the administration.
- Must be reported in at least 2 major media outlets: CNN, Fox, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, The Guardian, the AP, or similar.
- This is intended to cover deaths during protests, riots, arrests, or other public confrontations, or from injuries sustained during those confrontations; not subsequent deaths while in custody.
