If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

One-OffPolitics US Politics Election Geopolitics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 88%

Forecasters

210

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Feb 23, 24, 9:36 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'

https://v-dem.net/
If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).
Companion question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Siebe/if-a-democrat-is-elected-president)

Report a data issue with this market

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

One-OffPolitics US Politics Election Geopolitics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 88%

Forecasters

210

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Feb 23, 24, 9:36 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

If Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?

Manifold Markets

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Manifold Markets

Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?

Manifold Markets

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Polymarket

Will a woman be elected US vice president in 2028?

PredictIt

Will a woman be elected US president in 2028?

PredictIt

Rules

This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'

https://v-dem.net/
If Trump is not elected in 2024, this market will close NA (all mana returned).
Companion question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Siebe/if-a-democrat-is-elected-president)

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)?: Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
When does If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM) resolve?: If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM) is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
How is If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM) settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will be resolved based on the first V-DEM report after his term (i.e. March 2029), which collects data up to and including 2028.'

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Frequently asked questions

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