Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 25, 3:14 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsConditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
- If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count.
- If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026? resolve?
- Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2032.
- How is Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria