Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 25, 3:14 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on regime change in Russia, will Putin be executed or assassinated before 2034?
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Manifold MarketsConditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
- If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count.
- If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
