Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.4%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 19, 23, 12:16 AM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Trump is elected in 2024, will he be impeached again?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
FutuurWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to N/A if Trump is not elected or if he is not convicted of any charges (a preemptive, but potentially unnecessary pardon attempt would resolve YES).
- By pardon attempt, I mean drafting and signing a pardon absolving himself of any offense.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself? resolve?
- If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2029.
- How is If Trump is elected, will he attempt to pardon himself? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to N/A if Trump is not elected or if he is not convicted of any charges (a preemptive, but potentially unnecessary pardon attempt would resolve YES).