Current community forecast
Yes 54.2%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 26, 9:57 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
Manifold MarketsIf Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketNZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the PM at the end of 2027 is Labour and Conservatives get ≥100 seats in the next general election; resolves NO if the PM at the end of 2027 isn't Labour, and N/A if Labour doesn't get ≥100 seats in the next GE.
- Beware the order of the events; the next GE might occur before or after the end of 2027, which affects the causation but not the logic of the resolution.
