If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.6%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 25, 5:39 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
I'll look at the net approval rating at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin one week after at least one protestor got shot by law enforcement.
- It doesn't matter what agency the agent was from who shot the protestor(s).
- National guard or military counts as well, as long as it happened while they were on duty, responding to a protest.
- If no protestors get shot during the second term I'll resolve the market N/A. If net approval is exactly identical in Silver's report, this resolves NO, since it didn't go up.
- It's irrelevant for the market condition if the protestor survives.
- As long as they were hit by a proper, potentially deadly bullet, not rubber bullets or teargas or similar, it counts.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up? resolve?
- If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is If protestors get shot by law enforcement during Trump's second term will his net approval rating go up? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'll look at the net approval rating at https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin one week after at least one protestor got shot by law enforcement.