Will Apple provide the content of an iMessage message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
TechOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.9%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 7:34 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background: iMessage, owned by Apple, currently uses end-to-end encryption for all messages, meaning only the sender and recipient can read message contents.
- While Apple can and does share certain metadata with law enforcement, they cannot access the actual content of encrypted messages in the current version of the iMessage software.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if, before January 20, 2029, one of the listed Internet news sites reports that Apple has provided the content of at least one iMessage message to a US law enforcement agency. "Content" refers to the actual text, images, videos, or other media sent in messages, not to metadata such as user names, IP addresses, or timestamps.
- Internet news sites: 404 Media, Ars Technica, Business Insider, The Markup, ProPublica, The Register, TechCrunch, The Verge.
