Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?
PoliticsGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
January 20, 2029 (Whole term) 33.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
January 20, 2029 (Whole term) 33.6%Forecasters
53
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 7:29 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 2:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the Trump admin deploys federal law enforcement or the military to crack down on a protest by "radical left lunatics"
- I am defining crackdown here to mean a severe retaliation for a protest and/or riot, not necessarily done by any political affiliation (to not complicate the resolution criteria).
- This either means:
- 500+ arrests and/or 100+ injuries in a day across the US
- 2,000+ arrests and/or 400+ injuries in any 7-day period across the US
- (For reference, BLM protests and riots following George Floyd's death saw 14,000 arrests in ~a month)