Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?
PoliticsGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
January 20, 2029 (Whole term) 49.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
53
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 7, 24, 7:29 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Rules
Resolves YES if the Trump admin deploys federal law enforcement or the military to crack down on a protest by "radical left lunatics"
- I am defining crackdown here to mean a severe retaliation for a protest and/or riot, not necessarily done by any political affiliation (to not complicate the resolution criteria).
- This either means:
- 500+ arrests and/or 100+ injuries in a day across the US
- 2,000+ arrests and/or 400+ injuries in any 7-day period across the US
- (For reference, BLM protests and riots following George Floyd's death saw 14,000 arrests in ~a month)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date??
- Manifold Markets prices January 20, 2029 (Whole term) at 49% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date? resolve?
- Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the Trump admin deploys federal law enforcement or the military to crack down on a protest by "radical left lunatics"