Will The Signal Foundation provide the content of a Signal message to US law enforcement before January 20, 2029?
One-OffSociety & CultureRegulation2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 8, 25, 7:39 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background: Signal, owned by the Signal Foundation, currently uses end-to-end encryption for all messages, meaning only the sender and recipient can read message contents.
- The Signal Foundation cannot access the actual content of encrypted messages in the current version of their software.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if, before January 20, 2029, one of the listed Internet news sites reports that The Signal Foundation has provided the (decrypted) content of at least one user message to a US law enforcement agency. "Content" refers to the actual text, images, videos, or other media sent in messages, not to metadata such as user names, IP addresses, or timestamps.
- Internet news sites: 404 Media, Ars Technica, Business Insider, The Markup, ProPublica, The Register, TechCrunch, The Verge.
- Update 9 Jan 2025 (From AI summary of comment) If the sites report on a backdoor but do not report that it was used to provide decrypted content to US law enforcement, the resolution will be No.
