If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern
PoliticsOne-OffElectionSportsCrime & JusticeUS PoliticsChess24d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.1%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 21, 26, 5:34 PM UTCNov 21, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market and will resolve NA if Labour does not win the 2026 NZ general election.
- This market resolves YES if, following the 2026 New Zealand general election on 7 November 2026, Labour forms a government and requires the support of Te Pāti Māori to command a majority in Parliament.
- This includes scenarios where Te Pāti Māori is part of a formal coalition government or provides confidence and supply support.
- The market resolves NO if Labour wins the election but can form a government without Te Pāti Māori support (e.g., with only the Greens, or with sufficient seats to govern alone or with other parties).
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Governor-General regarding government formation and any published coalition agreements.
