Current community forecast
No 70.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 26, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The 2026 New Zealand general election is scheduled for 7 November 2026.
- This market resolves YES if Labour forms a government following the election without requiring confidence and supply or coalition support from Te Pāti Māori.
- This includes scenarios where Labour governs alone or with support from other parties (such as the Green Party or New Zealand First), but excludes any arrangement requiring Te Pāti Māori's parliamentary support.
- Resolution will be determined by official government formation announcements from the Governor-General and confirmed through New Zealand Parliament records at parliament.nz.
- Te Pāti Māori received 88,000 votes at the last election, or just over 3% of the total party vote, and took six of the seven Māori electorate seats.