If I offer someone on a plane $20 to take off their mask for the remainder of the flight, will they accept?
GeopoliticsOne-OffSociety & Culture3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80%
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73
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 23, 5:32 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Inspired by https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-offered-people-10000-to-take-off
- If this market gets enough interest or I otherwise gain at least $20 of motivation, I may choose to do this on a future flight.
- (I fly several times a month.) This market resolves if/when I do that, based on the result.
- I won't make the offer to anyone for whom I have significant additional information about their masking preferences past the simple fact that they're wearing one.
- (e.g. I won't ask someone who has expressed a verbal opinion to me about whether they'd accept, or is wearing a shirt with some statement about the importance of masking on it.)
- I'll offer no later than halfway through the flight.