Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.2%
Forecasters
126
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 24, 6:37 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
(@JoelBecker and I put a handshake bet on this at 2%, my $10 to his $490)
- Update 2025-03-09: Dropping the conditional "If Elected" from the title, as Trump won election.
- Update 2025-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- The market will resolve after Trump's current term ends
- The market will resolve if a pardon occurs
- Resolution happens at the earliest of the above events
