What are the current odds for If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents??

Manifold Markets prices No at 61.6% as of October 25, 2026.

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 61.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 18 hours ago

Stale

Oct 27, 24, 7:48 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if any political opponent of Trump is arrested on charges brought at Trump’s behest.

This is in response to Trump’s recent statement that “there are enemies within”.
Criminal charges against any public figure perceived by Trump or his supporters to have acted contrary to Trump qualify for this market.
Criminal charges that result in arrest resolve YES, even if the defendant is booked and released pending trial.
Charges that do not result in arrest (eg civil charges) do not resolve this market.
The results of trials based on charges that predate Trump’s second term do not resolve this market.