If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:54 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win the Senate in the 2028 Senate elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any federal judges be confirmed in Oct 2026?
KalshiWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRules
Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate confirms 40 or more Article III judges (Supreme Court, courts of appeals, district courts and the Court of International Trade) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029, as counted by the Federal Judicial Center's biographical directory or the Senate's record of confirmations.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
