If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.4%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 7, 26, 2:05 AM UTCJan 3, 29, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: Republicans control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Republican senators hold at least 50 seats (with the Republican Vice President breaking ties).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive), for any seat including Chief Justice.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
