If a House vote on Hegseth Impeachment happens in 2026, How many Republicans vote to impeach?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast1 or more 99%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+49.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 8, 26, 8:07 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Precondition: This market resolves N/A across all options if the U.S. House of Representatives does not hold a roll call vote on at least one resolution or article impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during calendar year 2026.
- If a qualifying roll call vote occurs, each threshold option resolves independently based on the official number of House Republicans who vote "Yea" on the impeachment resolution:
- If multiple votes occur, resolves based on the first impeachment vote.
- Independents who caucus with republicans count as republicans.
- Resolves based on the actual impeachment vote, not any vote that may allow it to be voted on etc