How many U.S. reps vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
80.5 pts (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsGeopolitics1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo vote 93%+80.5ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+80.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 9, 26, 7:55 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor.
- Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered.
- A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him.
- Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held.
- The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered.