Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 54.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 24, 11:18 AM UTCJun 30, 28, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Bitcoin be above $69K on both 6/9 AND 9/6 in 2027? (June 9th and Sept 6th)
Manifold MarketsWho will die first? Trump or Biden?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiVenezuela leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Referring to the Trump and Biden candidates for the 2024 election.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-6.0pt49.5%
- No change+5.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.7M
- 24h Vol
- $865.3K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+3.0pt100%
- September 25+10.5pt95%
- September 30+6.5pt85%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.1pt92%
- Republican Party-1.5pt8%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $499K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.4pt8.1%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- September 30+4.5pt100%
- October 31+2.8pt100%
- September 24+5.1pt100%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028 resolve?
- Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028 is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2028.
- How is Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Referring to the Trump and Biden candidates for the 2024 election.