Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?
One-OffElectionPoliticsLatin America
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 4:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:47 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsCOND. Who will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by which date?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurPetrobras' privatization to begin by the end of Lula's term?
FutuurRules
Resolves YES if that max total is strictly greater than 59,563,912.
- Resolves NO if it is ≤ 59,563,912, or if Lula is not a registered presidential candidate on the 2026 ballot (i.e., not present in official TSE results as a presidential candidate)
