Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America26dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDatafolha 35.1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 26, 7:33 PM UTCOct 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Datafolha at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? resolve?
- Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026.
- How is Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.