Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionSportsSoccerLatin America26dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 27, 26, 3:14 AM UTCOct 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if at least one “third-way” candidate receives 10.0% or more of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to the official results published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the TSE.
- This market resolves NO if no “third-way” candidate receives 10.0% or more of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
- For the purposes of this market, a third-way candidate means any presidential candidate other than:
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or the official presidential nominee of PT;
- Flávio Bolsonaro or the official presidential nominee of PL;
- Jair Bolsonaro;
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%? resolve?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026.
- How is Brazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if at least one “third-way” candidate receives 10.0% or more of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to the official results published by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the TSE.