Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 25, 7:43 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Candace Owens divorced by December 31, 2027?
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Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Candace Owen’s claimed on Twitter that French president, Emmanuel Macron, is plotting to have her murdered.
- The market resolves to Yes if at least one major news outlet (e.g., NYT, Washington Post, LA Times) reports that the incident was an independent attack on her.
- If any such report characterizes the incident as possibly staged or not clearly an independent attack, the market will not resolve to Yes.”