Adam Hamiltons winning margin in Johnson County in the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
0.4 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms13d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastHamilton wins the county by 15 to 19.99% 20.4%+0.4ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 26, 10:52 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Kansas, is running against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.
- This market resolves based on Hamilton's margin of victory in Johnson County in the November 3, 2026 election.
- The margin is calculated as Adam Hamiltons vote percent in Johnson County, minus the second place candidates (likely Roger Marshall) vote share.
- If the named outcome, resolves Hamilton loses the county.
- For his margin, Associated Press results for Johnson county will be used, however if the AP result is very close to 2 buckets, resolution can wait for certified final results.
- Any results will be rounded to 2 decimal places to resolve this market.
