30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
FedOne-OffInflationBonds & TreasuriesPoliticsUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 30, 25, 7:20 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reaches or exceeds 5.6% at any point during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States.
- Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, and is scheduled to end on January 20, 2029.
- The yield data will be verified using official sources such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (tradingeconomics.com) or the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (fred.stlouisfed.org).
- If the yield does not reach 5.6% during this period, the market will resolve to "No."
- The 30-year Treasury yield reflects investor sentiment about long-term economic growth and inflation expectations.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.1M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt50%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt44.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 2027+2.0pt75%
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $47.9K
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- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term? resolve?
- 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 19, 2029.
- How is 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria