30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
FedOne-OffInflationBonds & TreasuriesPoliticsUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 30, 25, 7:20 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reaches or exceeds 5.6% at any point during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States.
- Trump's second term began on January 20, 2025, and is scheduled to end on January 20, 2029.
- The yield data will be verified using official sources such as the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (tradingeconomics.com) or the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (fred.stlouisfed.org).
- If the yield does not reach 5.6% during this period, the market will resolve to "No."
- The 30-year Treasury yield reflects investor sentiment about long-term economic growth and inflation expectations.
