Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 77.7%+1.8ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.9 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 18, 24, 8:09 PM UTCJan 24, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Manifold Markets30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill a majority of the Fed vote to raise rates by Sept. 16?
PredictItWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 50bps or more in September 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.1M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt50%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt44.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 2027+2.0pt75%
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $47.9K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term? resolve?
- How many times will the Fed raise rates during Trump's second term? is scheduled to resolve on January 24, 2029.