Current community forecast
Starmer Out / No General Election 87%-3.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.9 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 7:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiIn what year will the next UK general election be held?
KalshiRules
Resolves based as per 2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026 on this market and Yes/No on this market.
- Update 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The election must be held in 2027 to count.
- An election occurring in 2026 does not qualify.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2x2 Starmer out before 2027 / UK General Election in 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices Starmer Out / No General Election at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 2x2 Starmer out before 2027 / UK General Election in 2027 resolve?
- 2x2 Starmer out before 2027 / UK General Election in 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is 2x2 Starmer out before 2027 / UK General Election in 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based as per 2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026 on this market and Yes/No on this market.