LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 99%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 12:25 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
- Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 1%.
CoinRithm reference 1% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30??
- Limitless prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? resolve?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Myriad.