Current implied probability
Reform UK majority 6%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.1% / 12.0%
Spread
96.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Reform UK majority6%
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If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).