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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquiditySpread
4.9 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi prices Reform UK minority + Conservative support at 15% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Next government of the United Kingdom? resolve?
- Next government of the United Kingdom? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Next government of the United Kingdom? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
