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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Election
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

ElectionPoliticsEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessSports3y
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$9.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

May 21, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 30, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Reform UK majority15%

Rules

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,626.53+2.28%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.52%EthereumETH$1,648.82+1.45%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.65%XRPXRP$1.12+0.15%BNBBNB$594.97+1.59%

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Rules

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).