Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 23, 9:38 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Wales is no longer represented in or governed by the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland by close date.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030? resolve?
- Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Wales is no longer represented in or governed by the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland by close date.