KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 38.7% (97%)
Resolved: Nov 1, 2026, 6:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 38.7%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
10%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 5:49 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 38.7%97%
38.7%4%
38.6%43%
Below 38.1%1%
38.4%5%
38.5%10%
38.1%1%
38.3%2%
38.2%1%
Above 38.7%Won
38.7%Lost
38.6%Lost
Below 38.1%Lost
38.4%Lost
38.5%Lost
38.1%Lost
38.3%Lost
38.2%Lost
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PolymarketRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is above 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 38.7%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is above 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.7%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 38.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.4%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.3%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.2%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.2% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.