KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Karoline Leavitt 100%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19K
Liquidity
$2.1M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 13, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
PolymarketWho will leave the Trump administration in 2026?
FutuurRules
If the named outcome leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABC News AustraliaBloomberg NewsCNBCCNNDeutsche WelleFinancial TimesFox NewsMSNBCofficial government records and registriespersonPoliticoReutersthe Associated Pressthe body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is heldthe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostBBC
- the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? · Tulsi Gabbard 86%
- Also available on Polymarket — Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? · Karoline Leavitt 100%
- Also available on Limitless — Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? · Karoline Leavitt 50%
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
- $50M+10.6pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $657.9K
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Total Vol
- $748.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Karoline Leavitt at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? resolve?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Polymarket, Limitless.