LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Karoline Leavitt 50%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Aug 26, 26, 2:11 PMJan 1, 27, 2:59 PM
Trends
Rules
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
If the named outcome leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Outcome verified from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Karoline Leavitt is 100%. Quotes span about 50 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Karoline Leavitt 100% · 3 venues · 50 pt venue spread
- Also available on Gemini — Who will leave the Trump Administration in 2026? · Lori Chavez-DeRemer 100%
- Also available on Futuur — Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? · Tulsi Gabbard 86%
- Also available on Kalshi — Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? · Karoline Leavitt 100%
Open markets
US Politics
KALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+1.1pt100%
- Seth Moulton-0.9pt0%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $64.1M
- 24h Vol
- $586.5K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance+2.0pt45.5%
- Marco Rubio+3.0pt21.2%
- Ron DeSantis-0.3pt4%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61.8M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+2.8pt52%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt18%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026??
- Limitless prices Karoline Leavitt at 50% as of September 2, 2026.
- When does Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? resolve?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? settled?
- Limitless settles this market as follows: the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome. <p>If the named outcome leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.</p><p><br></p><p>the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.</p><p><br></p><p>If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Where else is Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Gemini, Futuur, Kalshi.