Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 26, 11:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Sarah B. Rogers officially vacates, resigns, is dismissed, or is replaced in her role as the United States Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- If she remains in office as of that deadline, the market will resolve to NO.
- Dual-Role Clarification: In March 2026, Rogers was nominated to concurrently serve as the Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM).
- If she is confirmed to the USAGM position but retains her office as the Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs, this does not qualify as leaving her role, and the market will resolve to NO (unless she subsequently vacates the State Department role before the deadline).
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or reports from major, reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, The New York Times, or The Washington Post).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria