KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2029 61%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2029 61%Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$707
Open interest
$2.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 9, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Stephen Miller leave the White House before 2 Jan 2027?
Manifold MarketsMax Miller out as US Rep by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Stephen MillerThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersthe White HouseCNNthe New York TimesPoliticoFinancial TimesMSNBCNBCABCCBSCNBCABC News AustraliaDeutsche WelleBBC
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. Leaving only another role he holds does not count. Being considered for or named to another position does not count unless the announcement states or clearly communicates that Stephen Miller will cease to be White House Chief of Staff. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count, including a statement that he will serve until then, that he will not serve in the next administration, or that he will take another office beginning then. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Stephen Miller leaves (or announces he will leave) as White House Chief of Staff before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.