Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Pete Hegseth · —
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Stored price
Pete Hegseth 62.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Pete Hegseth 62.5%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.1
Open interest
$3.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Pete HegsethSpread
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Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 9, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Pete Hegseth
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
KalshiWho will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
PolymarketWill Lee Zeldin still be a member of Trump’s cabinet by the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWho leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?
PolymarketHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
PolymarketWhich Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersBloomberg NewsThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalPoliticoAxiosSemaforABCCBSNBCCNNFox NewsMSNBCThe InformationBBC NewsThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBC
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. The first official is the one whose announcement or departure comes first after Issuance. If a single announcement covers both named officials, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of named officials covered by that announcement. Leaving means ceasing to be Secretary of State, for Marco Rubio, or Secretary of Defense, for Pete Hegseth, by resignation, firing, removal or a move to another post; a change in the name of the office is not leaving. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, a temporary leave or recusal, being considered for another position, and impeachment without removal do NOT count. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does NOT count, including a statement that he will not serve in the next administration. No officials will be added to this event. None resolves to Yes if neither named official leaves or announces he will leave his position before Jan 20, 2029. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Rules for each outcome
- Pete Hegseth
- If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Marco Rubio
- If Marco Rubio is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of State after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- None
- If neither of the two officials named in this event leaves, or announces he will leave, his position after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.