KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jul 14, 2026 96%+74.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.6M
Liquidity
$2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
96.4% / 96.9%
Spread
0.5%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingJun 1, 26, 4:15 PMJul 14, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jul 14, 202696%
Also available on PredictIt
Will Graham Platner drop out before July 14?
4.0%6d
+4.0%95%
-4.0%5%
Retail prediction exchange
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PREDICTIT
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Graham Platner Drop out of the Maine Senate Race?
3mo
11%
89%
Community forecast45 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$5.6K
24h Vol$150
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- “Dropped out” means any of the following: Graham Platner announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign Graham Platner files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities Graham Platner publicly states they are no longer seeking the office Graham Platner endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running Graham Platner is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal
- The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate
- Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter “Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Graham Platner explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot
- If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.6MJul 26d of dataJul 7
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If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- “Dropped out” means any of the following: Graham Platner announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign Graham Platner files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities Graham Platner publicly states they are no longer seeking the office Graham Platner endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running Graham Platner is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal
- The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate
- Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter “Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Graham Platner explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot
- If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.