KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Before Jul 9, 2026
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, 1:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Before Jul 9, 2026 100%+43.8ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.9M
Liquidity
$3.9M
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 54 days ago
StaleJul 6, 26, 7:12 PMJul 9, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Before Jul 14, 2026100%
Before Jul 10, 2026100%
Before Jul 11, 2026100%
Before Jul 9, 2026100%
Before Jul 13, 2026100%
Before Jul 12, 2026100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
Rules
If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- “Dropped out” means any of the following: Graham Platner announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign Graham Platner files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities Graham Platner publicly states they are no longer seeking the office Graham Platner endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running Graham Platner is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal
- The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate
- Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter “Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless Graham Platner explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot
