KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 1 5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$5.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 12:00 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which bills will become law in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of the 12 fiscal year 2027 regular appropriations bills that have become law is the named outcome before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- Each of the 12 regular appropriations categories is counted separately.
- A standalone appropriations law counts as one, while an omnibus or minibus counts once for each regular appropriations bill enacted within it; for example, a package containing four regular appropriations divisions counts as four.
- Continuing resolutions, supplemental appropriations, and other funding measures do not count unless they enact one or more of the 12 regular appropriations bills.
- A regular appropriations bill counts regardless of its legislative vehicle, bill number, or whether it is enacted as a division of a broader law.
- For example, in FY2019 the applicable number is 5: two minibuses covering Energy-Water, Legislative Branch, Military Construction–VA, Defense, and Labor-HHS-Education were enacted before October 1.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.5pt74%
- September 18+1.0pt69%
- September 11+5.0pt66%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many FY2027 appropriations bills will become law before Oct 1, 2026??
- Kalshi prices At least 1 at 5% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does How many FY2027 appropriations bills will become law before Oct 1, 2026? resolve?
- How many FY2027 appropriations bills will become law before Oct 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is How many FY2027 appropriations bills will become law before Oct 1, 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of the 12 fiscal year 2027 regular appropriations bills that have become law is the named outcome before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.