KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrats, 3+ pts 34%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$695.5
Low liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 8:20 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana's 1st District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Montana's 1st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 3+ pts at 34% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Montana's 1st District margin of victory resolve?
- Montana's 1st District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Montana's 1st District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana's 1st District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.