KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: At least 20 (99%)
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, 2:34 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
At least 20
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probabilityAt least 20 99%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$26.6K
Liquidity
$205.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 19 days ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 5:15 PMJul 7, 26, 4:45 PM
Probability Timeline
At least 2099%
At least 601%
At least 802%
1%
2%
99%
98%
99%
99%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· At least 20
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $26.6K | $205.4K | 19 days ago | |
 Polymarket75% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $4.3K | $0 | 19 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
0.5 ptsClosed
+0.7pt100%
+9.4pt100%
-0.5pt0%
+1 more outcomes
17 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$4.2M
24h Vol$4.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 20 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 30 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 40 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 50 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 80 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$26.6kJul 26d of dataJul 7
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 20 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 30 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 40 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 50 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 80 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.