KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current implied probability
Before Nov 7, 2026 4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Nov 7, 2026 4%Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$9.6K
Medium open interestMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 12:41 AM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Nov 7, 20264%
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?
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KalshiJeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?
KalshiJohn Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader?
KalshiChris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Christopher LuxonThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersDepartment of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (New Zealand)CNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Nov 7, 2026
- If Christopher Luxon leaves as Prime Minister of New Zealand before Nov 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Christopher Luxon leaves as Prime Minister of New Zealand before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Christopher Luxon leaves as Prime Minister of New Zealand before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
