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Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 1%
Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$441.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 3.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 12:00 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the Senate Majority Leader has resigned or otherwise left their specified position the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSThe New York TimesAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- An announcement that the official will leave the office within the next year also resolves the market to Yes.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 1% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader? resolve?
- John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is John Thune announces departure as Senate Majority Leader? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Senate Majority Leader has resigned or otherwise left their specified position the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.