Before Jan 1, 2027
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 84.5%
No 84.5%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$489.1
Open interest
$1.5K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?
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KalshiIsrael’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement that the leader will leave within the next year counts even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.