How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026?
3.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
5 or more · —
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Stored price
5 or more 55%Leader of 4 outcomes
5 or more 55%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$53.4
Open interest
$22.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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5 or moreSpread
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Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Sep 16, 25, 9:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
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Venue terms
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- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 5 or more
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PolymarketRules
If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Senate ParliamentarianNew York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsCNNNBCABCCBSFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoBallotpediaofficial state or local election division websitesthe Clerk of the House of Representativesthe Secretary of the SenateClerk of the U.S. House of RepresentativesReutersThe Cook Political ReportSabato's Crystal Ball
- Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election.
Rules for each outcome
- 5 or more
- If at least 5 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 4
- If exactly 4 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 3
- If exactly 3 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Exactly 2
- If exactly 2 members of the Senate Republicans lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.