KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:12 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
9 or more · —
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Stored price
13 or more 45.5%Market line of 10 lines
13 or more 45.5%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$154.7
Low open interestBid / Ask
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9 or moreSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 1, 26, 6:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · 9 or more
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Rules
If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Associated PressNew York TimesBloomberg NewsCNNNBCABCCBSFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington PostPoliticoBallotpediaofficial state or local election division websitesthe Clerk of the House of RepresentativesClerk of the U.S. House of RepresentativesReutersthe Secretary of the SenateThe Cook Political ReportSabato's Crystal Ball
- Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members against each other, the loser counts. Members who switch parties after issuance remain part of the original group. If a member loses their party primary but wins as an independent, they did not lose re-election. Losses in 2026 House primaries and runoffs held before this market opened count, including for members who later leave office. Members who ran for a different office, such as the Senate, are not counted. Party is as listed by the Clerk of the House when this market opened. Non-voting delegates and the Resident Commissioner are not counted.
Rules for each outcome
- 9 or more
- If at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 10 or more
- If at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 11 or more
- If at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 12 or more
- If at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 13 or more
- If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 14 or more
- If at least 14 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 15 or more
- If at least 15 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 16 or more
- If at least 16 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 17 or more
- If at least 17 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 18 or more
- If at least 18 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
